Housing Element Draft Chapter 3
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3.0 Overview of Housing Needs and Constraints
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Overview of Housing Needs
3.3 Governmental and Non-Governmental Constraints
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3.1 Introduction
This chapter summarizes housing needs and constraints in the City of Belvedere. The analysis of housing needs primarily utilizes data compiled by ABAG in the Housing Needs Data Report: Belvedere (ABAG/MTC, Baird + Driskell Community Planning, April 2, 2021), which was approved by HCD. For a detailed analysis of housing needs, please see Appendix B (Housing Needs Assessment). Also, for a detailed analysis of governmental and non-governmental constraints, please see Appendix C (Housing Constraints).
Summary of Key Facts
This section provides a summary of key facts related to housing in Belvedere.
The population of Belvedere has remained essentially the same or has even slightly declined between 2000 to 2020, which differs from the steady increase in the Bay Area. Overall, the population of the Bay Area continues to grow because of natural growth and because of the strong economy that draws new residents to the region.
Belvedere has high housing costs and little unit diversity. The Zillow Market Index values housing in Belvedere at an average of $4.2 million per unit, significantly above the county’s $1.08 million average value. Eighty-four percent of the housing in Belvedere is single-family detached units, 7.7 percent is small multifamily, 4.8 percent is single family attached, and 3.5 percent medium or large multifamily.
Two-thirds (66 percent) of rental units rent for $2,000 or more a month, compared to 48 percent in Marin County and 42 percent in the Bay area. The median rent in 2019 in Belvedere was $2,600. Renters make up almost a quarter (24 percent) of all households in Belvedere.
Residential permits between 2015 and 2019 have been minimal and favored moderate and above moderate-income households. Only four permits were issued since 2015, none of which fell in the very low- or low-income permit categories. Since 2000, Belvedere has only added 29 housing units out of 1,060 total units in the city—less than three percent of the city’s total housing stock.
Belvedere’s population is less diverse than the region overall in racial and ethnic composition: 92 percent of Belvedere’s residents identify as non-Hispanic White, compared to 71 percent for Marin County and 39 percent for the Bay area overall. Five percent of residents are of Hispanic descent, compared to 16 percent in the County and 24 percent in the Bay area. Two percent of residents identify as Asian, about four percentage points less than in the county, but lower than the Bay area overall (27 percent). The city has expanded its diversity, albeit slightly, since 2000, driven by growth in the share of Hispanic residents in the city (two percent to five percent). However, this is not likely to remain as the entirety of the under 18 years of age population is non-Hispanic White (100 percent).
Poverty rates highlight the disparity in income and opportunities by race, with the Asian and Hispanic populations experiencing 9.3 percent and 5.6 percent poverty rates, respectively, while the poverty rate for non-Hispanic White residents is 2.6 percent.
There are minor disparities in housing cost burden in Belvedere by race/ethnicity and by tenure (renters/owners). Non-Hispanic White residents experienced the highest cost burden (38 percent), with 21 percent being severely cost burdened (spending greater than 50 percent of income on housing). Renters recorded slightly higher cost burdens than owners (39 percent vs 32 percent respectively) but were much more likely to be severely cost burdened (30 percent to 16 percent).
The City of Belvedere is covered entirely by one census tract. Therefore, it is not possible to draw distinctions geospatially within the city for renters, concentrations of poverty, displacement vulnerable, and socially vulnerable residents.
Mortgage denial rates vary by race and ethnicity, particularly for Hispanic applications that were rejected in half of the cases (four total cases). However, only 114 total applications across all races were submitted from 2018 to 2019.
None of the fair housing complaints filed in Marin County from 2017 to 2021 were in the City of Belvedere.
As of 2019, students in the Tamalpais Union High School District were 71 percent White, with Hispanic students making up 12 percent of the student body. Graduation rates for all students were roughly equivalent for all races and ethnic minorities, with the overall rate of 95 percent, almost ten percentage points higher than the state average.
Belvedere student college readiness was average with 68.3 percent of students prepared for college. However, this number was significantly higher than the state’s average of 44 percent.
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3.2 Overview of Housing Needs
The following section provides an overview of demographic information, housing characteristics, and special housing needs in Belvedere. For a more complete discussion of housing needs, see Appendix B.
Population Trends
The Bay Area is the fifth-largest metropolitan area in the nation and has seen a steady increase in population since 1990, except for a dip during the 2008 Great Recession. Many cities in the region have experienced significant growth in jobs and population. While these trends have led to a corresponding increase in demand for housing across the region, the regional production of housing has largely not kept pace with job and population growth.
According to the data, the population of Belvedere was estimated to be 2,124 in 2020. The population of Belvedere makes up about 0.8 percent of Marin County. In Belvedere, roughly 12.2 percent of its population moved during the past year, a number that is slightly lower than the regional rate of 13.4 percent. Table 3-1, Belvedere and Regional Population Growth Trends, shows population growth trends for Belvedere, Marin County, and the Bay Area as a whole.
Population by Age
The distribution of age groups in a city shapes what types of housing the community may be needed in the future. An increase in the older population may mean that there is a developing need for more senior housing options, while higher numbers of children and young families can point to the need for more family housing options and related services. There has also been a move by many to age-in-place or downsize to stay within their communities, which can mean more multifamily and accessible units are also needed.
In Belvedere, the median age in 2000 was approximately 52 years. By 2019, the median age decreased only slightly to approximately 51 years. The population of those age 5 to 14 has increased since 2010, as has the population of those age 85-and-over.
Population by Race/Ethnicity
Understanding the racial makeup of a city and region is important for designing and implementing effective housing policies and programs. These patterns are shaped by both market factors and government actions, such as exclusionary zoning, discriminatory lending practices and displacement that has occurred over time and continues to impact communities of color today.
Since 2000, the percentage of residents in Belvedere identifying as White, Non-Hispanic has decreased by 3.2 percentage points, with the 2019 population standing at 1,970. By the same token the percentage of residents of all Other Race of Multiple Races, Non-Hispanic has increased. In absolute terms, the Hispanic or Latinx population increased the most while the White, Non-Hispanic population decreased the most.
Employment
The largest industry in which Belvedere residents work is Financial & Professional Services, and the largest sector in which Marin residents work is Financial & Professional Services. For the Bay Area as a whole, the Health & Educational Services industry employs the most workers.
Belvedere has more housing than jobs, and this difference has decreased over time. Belvedere’s jobs-to-household ratio was 0.46 in 2018, which means that it was a net exporter of workers. In the last 20 years, this imbalance has improved slightly with the jobs-to-household ratio increasing from 0.42 in 2002.
Household Characteristics
Extremely Low-Income Households
Despite the economic and job growth experienced throughout the region since 1990, the income gap has continued to widen. California is one of the most economically unequal states in the nation, and the Bay Area has the highest income inequality between high- and low-income households in the state.
In Belvedere, 72.7 percent of households make more than 100 percent of the Area Median Income (AMI), compared to 8.5 percent making less than 30 percent of AMI, which is considered extremely low-income. Regionally, more than half of all households make more than 100 percent AMI, while 15 percent make less than 30 percent AMI. In Marin County, 30 percent AMI is the equivalent to the annual income of $44,000 for a family of four. Many households with multiple wage earners, including food service workers, full-time students, teachers, farmworkers and healthcare professionals, can fall into lower AMI categories due to relatively stagnant wages in many industries.
Throughout the region, there are disparities between the incomes of homeowners and renters. Typically, the number of low-income renters greatly outpaces the amount of housing available that is affordable for these households. In Belvedere, the largest proportion of both renters and homeowners fall in the Greater than 100 percent of AMI group.
Economic disparities leave communities of color at higher risk for housing insecurity, displacement or homelessness. In Belvedere, Asian / API (Hispanic and Non-Hispanic) residents experience the highest rates of poverty, followed by Hispanic or Latinx residents.
Tenure
The number of residents who own their homes compared to those who rent their homes can help identify the level of housing insecurity (i.e., ability for individuals to stay in their homes) in a city and region. Generally, renters may be displaced more quickly if prices increase. In Belvedere there are a total of 895 households (2018 US Census estimate), and fewer households rent than own their homes: 23.7 percent versus 76.3 percent. By comparison, 36.3 percent of households in Marin County are renters, while 44.0 percent of Bay Area households rent their homes.
Homeownership rates often vary considerably across race/ethnicity in the Bay Area and throughout the country. These disparities not only reflect differences in income and wealth but also stem from federal, state, and local policies that limited access to homeownership for communities of color while facilitating homebuying for white residents. While many of these policies, such as redlining, have been formally disbanded, the impacts of race-based policy are still evident across Bay Area communities. In Belvedere, all Asian and Latinx households owned their own home and 76.0 percent of White households owned their own home. Notably, recent changes to state law require local jurisdictions to examine these dynamics and other fair housing issues when updating their Housing Elements.
In many cities, homeownership rates for households in single-family homes are substantially higher than the rates for households in multi-family housing. In Belvedere, 85.4 percent of households in detached single-family homes are homeowners, while no households in multi-family housing are homeowners.
Displacement
Because of increasing housing prices, displacement is a major concern in the Bay Area. Displacement has the most severe impacts on low- and moderate-income residents. When individuals or families are forced to leave their homes and communities, they also lose their support network.
The University of California, Berkeley (UC Berkeley) has mapped all neighborhoods in the Bay Area, identifying their risk for gentrification. They find that in Belvedere, there are no households that live in neighborhoods that are susceptible to or experiencing displacement and none live in neighborhoods at risk of or undergoing gentrification. Equally important, some neighborhoods in the Bay Area do not have housing appropriate for a broad section of the workforce. UC Berkeley estimates that all households in Belvedere live in neighborhoods where low-income households are likely to be excluded due to prohibitive housing costs.
Housing Stock Characteristics
Number of Homes
The number of new homes built in the Bay Area has not kept pace with the demand, resulting in longer commutes, increasing prices, and exacerbating issues of displacement and homelessness. According to the California Department of Finance, the City of Belvedere had 1,049 housing units in 2021, up only slightly (0.4 percent) from the 1,045 units that existed in 2010. This was lower than the growth for Marin County during the same period, which was 1.3 percent.
Between 2015 and 2021, five (5) housing units were issued permits in Belvedere which represents 31 percent of the RHNA number of 16 units assigned in the 5th cycle Housing Element. None of the housing permits issued in Belvedere were for lower-income housing.
Housing Type
In recent years, most housing produced in the region and across the state consisted of single-family homes and larger multi-unit buildings. However, some households are increasingly interested in “missing middle housing,” including duplexes, triplexes, townhomes, cottage clusters and accessory dwelling units. These housing types may open up more options across incomes and tenure, from young households seeking homeownership options to seniors looking to downsize and age-in-place. Zoning including R-2 and R-3 offers some variety for new construction. Some in the community have suggested that new single-family use could be prohibited in these zones.
It is important to have a variety of housing types to meet the needs of a community today and in the future. In 2020 Belvedere’s mix of housing types was as follows:
84.0 percent of homes were single-family detached;
4.8 percent were single-family attached;
7.7 percent were small multifamily (2-4 units);
3.5 percent were medium or large multifamily (5+ units); and
There no mobile homes in Belvedere.
Between 2010 and 2020, the number of single-family units increased more than multi-family units. In Belvedere, the share of the housing stock that is detached single-family homes is above that of other jurisdictions in the region.
Home Prices
Home prices reflect a complex mix of supply and demand factors, including an area’s demographic profile, labor market, prevailing wages and job outlook, coupled with land and construction costs. In the Bay Area, the costs of housing have long been among the highest in the nation. The region’s home values have increased steadily since 2000, besides a decrease during the 2008 Great Recession.A diversity of homes at all income levels creates opportunities for all Belvedere residents to live and thrive in the community.
Ownership – The largest proportion of homes had a value in the range of $2M+ in 2019. Home prices increased by 139.7 percent from 2010 to 2020; and
Rental Prices – The typical contract rent for an apartment in Belvedere was $2,610 in 2019. Rental prices increased by 30.8 percent from 2009 to 2019.
Cost Burden
The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development considers housing to be affordable for a household if the household spends less than 30 percent of its income on housing costs. A household is considered “cost-burdened” if it spends more than 30 percent of its monthly income on housing costs, while those who spend more than 50 percent of their income on housing costs are considered “severely cost-burdened.”
In Belvedere, 8.5 percent of renters spend 30 percent to 50 percent of their income on housing compared to 16.0 percent of those that own. Additionally, 29.2 percent of renters spend 50 percent or more of their income on housing, while 16.3 percent of owners are severely cost-burdened. When looking at the cost burden across tenure in Belvedere:
15.4 percent of renters spend 30 percent to 50 percent of their income on housing; and
19.5 percent of renters spend 50 percent or more of their income on housing.
When looking at the cost burden by race in Belvedere:
White, Non-Hispanic residents are the most severely cost burdened with 20.6 percent spending more than 50 percent of their income on housing; and
Asian/API, Non-Hispanic are the second most severely cost burdened with 16.7 percent spending more than 50 percent of their income on housing.
Neighborhoods
All Belvedere residents live in neighborhoods identified as “Highest Resource” or “High Resource” areas by State-commissioned research, while none live in areas identified by this research as “Low Resource” or “High Segregation and Poverty” areas. These neighborhood designations are based on a range of indicators covering areas such as education, poverty, proximity to jobs and economic opportunities, low pollution levels, and other factors.
Special Housing Needs
Some population groups may have special housing needs that require specific program responses, and these groups may experience barriers to accessing stable housing due to their specific housing circumstances. The following groups may have special housing needs:
Large households
Female-headed households
Senior households
People with disabilities
Homeless Persons
Farmworkers
For a detailed analysis please refer to Appendix B Housing Needs Assessment.
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3.3 Governmental and Non-Governmental Constraints
Housing development is affected by government regulations and other non-governmental forces, such as the cost of land and building materials and the availability and cost of housing loans. Housing elements are required to investigate the impact of these constraints as they present themselves in the city or town for which the housing element is being prepared. This subsection provides a brief overview of governmental and non-governmental constraints in the City of Belvedere. Please see Appendix C for a full discussion of housing constraints.
Belvedere’s development regulations are generally consistent with California housing law, and where this is not the case, as with Low-Barrier Navigation Centers, Chapter 2 of this plan (Goals, Policies, and Programs) includes a program to correct the deficiency. The Zoning Code does not pose an unnecessary constraint to the development of affordable housing. To wit:
Single-family zones allow supportive and transition housing, small residential and family care facilities, and manufactured housing;
Multi-family densities, which allow up to 35 dwelling units per acre, are high enough to facilitate affordable housing projects;
Objective design standards are in place, so that the development process for multi-family housing is not subject to local design discretion;
Off-site improvement requirements are typical and not unduly constraining;
Processing times are consistent with State law and typical for a Bay Are community;
Parking requirements, which require 1.25 units per unit for one- and two-bedroom units, are low enough to not pose a constraint; and
The City of Belvedere has reasonable accommodations in place to facilitate needed modifications for special needs households.
In terms of non-governmental constraints, land costs will remain a constraint to affordable housing. The cost of construction materials is also a constraint, and to the degree that the City can subsidize affordable housing projects with available funds dedicated to housing, this too can make a difference.
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