3.2 Overview of Housing Needs

Population by Age

The distribution of age groups in a city shapes what types of housing the community may be needed in the future. An increase in the older population may mean that there is a developing need for more senior housing options, while higher numbers of children and young families can point to the need for more family housing options and related services. There has also been a move by many to age-in-place or downsize to stay within their communities, which can mean more multifamily and accessible units are also needed.

In Belvedere, the median age in 2000 was approximately 52 years. By 2019, the median age decreased only slightly to approximately 51 years. The population of those age 5 to 14 has increased since 2010, as has the population of those age 85-and-over.

Population by Race/Ethnicity

Understanding the racial makeup of a city and region is important for designing and implementing effective housing policies and programs. These patterns are shaped by both market factors and government actions, such as exclusionary zoning, discriminatory lending practices and displacement that has occurred over time and continues to impact communities of color today.

Since 2000, the percentage of residents in Belvedere identifying as White, Non-Hispanic has decreased by 3.2 percentage points, with the 2019 population standing at 1,970. By the same token the percentage of residents of all Other Race of Multiple Races, Non-Hispanic has increased. In absolute terms, the Hispanic or Latinx population increased the most while the White, Non-Hispanic population decreased the most.

Employment

The largest industry in which Belvedere residents work is Financial & Professional Services, and the largest sector in which Marin residents work is Financial & Professional Services. For the Bay Area as a whole, the Health & Educational Services industry employs the most workers.

Belvedere has more housing than jobs, and this difference has decreased over time. Belvedere’s jobs-to-household ratio was 0.46 in 2018, which means that it was a net exporter of workers. In the last 20 years, this imbalance has improved slightly with the jobs-to-household ratio increasing from 0.42 in 2002.

Household Characteristics

Extremely Low-Income Households

Despite the economic and job growth experienced throughout the region since 1990, the income gap has continued to widen. California is one of the most economically unequal states in the nation, and the Bay Area has the highest income inequality between high- and low-income households in the state.

In Belvedere, 72.7 percent of households make more than 100 percent of the Area Median Income (AMI), compared to 8.5 percent making less than 30 percent of AMI, which is considered extremely low-income. Regionally, more than half of all households make more than 100 percent AMI, while 15 percent make less than 30 percent AMI. In Marin County, 30 percent AMI is the equivalent to the annual income of $44,000 for a family of four. Many households with multiple wage earners, including food service workers, full-time students, teachers, farmworkers and healthcare professionals, can fall into lower AMI categories due to relatively stagnant wages in many industries.

Throughout the region, there are disparities between the incomes of homeowners and renters. Typically, the number of low-income renters greatly outpaces the amount of housing available that is affordable for these households. In Belvedere, the largest proportion of both renters and homeowners fall in the Greater than 100 percent of AMI group.

Economic disparities leave communities of color at higher risk for housing insecurity, displacement or homelessness. In Belvedere, Asian / API (Hispanic and Non-Hispanic) residents experience the highest rates of poverty, followed by Hispanic or Latinx residents.

Tenure

The number of residents who own their homes compared to those who rent their homes can help identify the level of housing insecurity (i.e., ability for individuals to stay in their homes) in a city and region. Generally, renters may be displaced more quickly if prices increase. In Belvedere there are a total of 895 households (2018 US Census estimate), and fewer households rent than own their homes: 23.7 percent versus 76.3 percent. By comparison, 36.3 percent of households in Marin County are renters, while 44.0 percent of Bay Area households rent their homes.

Homeownership rates often vary considerably across race/ethnicity in the Bay Area and throughout the country. These disparities not only reflect differences in income and wealth but also stem from federal, state, and local policies that limited access to homeownership for communities of color while facilitating homebuying for white residents. While many of these policies, such as redlining, have been formally disbanded, the impacts of race-based policy are still evident across Bay Area communities. In Belvedere, all Asian and Latinx households owned their own home and 76.0 percent of White households owned their own home. Notably, recent changes to state law require local jurisdictions to examine these dynamics and other fair housing issues when updating their Housing Elements.

In many cities, homeownership rates for households in single-family homes are substantially higher than the rates for households in multi-family housing. In Belvedere, 85.4 percent of households in detached single-family homes are homeowners, while no households in multi-family housing are homeowners.

Displacement

Because of increasing housing prices, displacement is a major concern in the Bay Area. Displacement has the most severe impacts on low- and moderate-income residents. When individuals or families are forced to leave their homes and communities, they also lose their support network.

The University of California, Berkeley (UC Berkeley) has mapped all neighborhoods in the Bay Area, identifying their risk for gentrification. They find that in Belvedere, there are no households that live in neighborhoods that are susceptible to or experiencing displacement and none live in neighborhoods at risk of or undergoing gentrification. Equally important, some neighborhoods in the Bay Area do not have housing appropriate for a broad section of the workforce. UC Berkeley estimates that all households in Belvedere live in neighborhoods where low-income households are likely to be excluded due to prohibitive housing costs.

Housing Stock Characteristics

Number of Homes

The number of new homes built in the Bay Area has not kept pace with the demand, resulting in longer commutes, increasing prices, and exacerbating issues of displacement and homelessness. According to the California Department of Finance, the City of Belvedere had 1,049 housing units in 2021, up only slightly (0.4 percent) from the 1,045 units that existed in 2010. This was lower than the growth for Marin County during the same period, which was 1.3 percent.

Between 2015 and 2021, five (5) housing units were issued permits in Belvedere which represents 31 percent of the RHNA number of 16 units assigned in the 5th cycle Housing Element. None of the housing permits issued in Belvedere were for lower-income housing.

Housing Type

In recent years, most housing produced in the region and across the state consisted of single-family homes and larger multi-unit buildings. However, some households are increasingly interested in “missing middle housing,” including duplexes, triplexes, townhomes, cottage clusters and accessory dwelling units. These housing types may open up more options across incomes and tenure, from young households seeking homeownership options to seniors looking to downsize and age-in-place. Zoning including R-2 and R-3 offers some variety for new construction. Some in the community have suggested that new single-family use could be prohibited in these zones.

It is important to have a variety of housing types to meet the needs of a community today and in the future. In 2020 Belvedere’s mix of housing types was as follows:

84.0 percent of homes were single-family detached;

4.8 percent were single-family attached;

7.7 percent were small multifamily (2-4 units);

3.5 percent were medium or large multifamily (5+ units); and

There no mobile homes in Belvedere.

Between 2010 and 2020, the number of single-family units increased more than multi-family units. In Belvedere, the share of the housing stock that is detached single-family homes is above that of other jurisdictions in the region.

Home Prices

A diversity of homes at all income levels creates opportunities for all Belvedere residents to live and thrive in the community.

Ownership – The largest proportion of homes had a value in the range of $2M+ in 2019. Home prices increased by 139.7 percent from 2010 to 2020; and

Rental Prices – The typical contract rent for an apartment in Belvedere was $2,610 in 2019. Rental prices increased by 30.8 percent from 2009 to 2019.

Cost Burden

The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development considers housing to be affordable for a household if the household spends less than 30 percent of its income on housing costs. A household is considered “cost-burdened” if it spends more than 30 percent of its monthly income on housing costs, while those who spend more than 50 percent of their income on housing costs are considered “severely cost-burdened.”

In Belvedere, 8.5 percent of renters spend 30 percent to 50 percent of their income on housing compared to 16.0 percent of those that own. Additionally, 29.2 percent of renters spend 50 percent or more of their income on housing, while 16.3 percent of owners are severely cost-burdened. When looking at the cost burden across tenure in Belvedere:

15.4 percent of renters spend 30 percent to 50 percent of their income on housing; and

19.5 percent of renters spend 50 percent or more of their income on housing.

When looking at the cost burden by race in Belvedere:

White, Non-Hispanic residents are the most severely cost burdened with 20.6 percent spending more than 50 percent of their income on housing; and

Asian/API, Non-Hispanic are the second most severely cost burdened with 16.7 percent spending more than 50 percent of their income on housing.

Neighborhoods

All Belvedere residents live in neighborhoods identified as “Highest Resource” or “High Resource” areas by State-commissioned research, while none live in areas identified by this research as “Low Resource” or “High Segregation and Poverty” areas. These neighborhood designations are based on a range of indicators covering areas such as education, poverty, proximity to jobs and economic opportunities, low pollution levels, and other factors.

Special Housing Needs

Some population groups may have special housing needs that require specific program responses, and these groups may experience barriers to accessing stable housing due to their specific housing circumstances. The following groups may have special housing needs:

Large households

Female-headed households

Senior households

People with disabilities

Homeless Persons

Farmworkers

For a detailed analysis please refer to Appendix B Housing Needs Assessment.